Greer and Ebrard opened the bilateral round in Mexico City this morning. Friday's INEGI release already answered the question they sat down to debate.
Two screens open on a lot of desks this morning. One has CNBC covering the USMCA bilateral round, framing it as uncertain, contentious, "more bilateral than trilateral." The other has the INEGI release from Friday, which mostly only Bloomberg picked up.
April exports hit $72.04 billion. Highest monthly print in Mexico's recorded history, which goes back to 1980. Trade surplus came in at $4.52 billion against a Bloomberg consensus of $476 million. The estimate missed by 9.5x to the upside.
What the April print actually said
Non-oil exports up 33.5% YoY, 83% went to the US. Manufacturing exports up 34%. AMIA reported light-vehicle exports of 286,317 units, third-best April since 2005. Q1 FDI hit a record $23,591 million, with US capital contributing $10,210 million, up 23.3%.
The number worth pausing on isn't the headline though. Intermediate goods rose 31.9% and now sit at 80% of Mexico's total imports. So this isn't Mexico exporting finished product to American shelves. It's Mexico operating as the manufacturing node where American and Asian intermediate goods get value added before crossing back north.
Every dollar of intermediate import is a dollar of integrated production. That integrated production is what's actually on the table this week.
What's being negotiated
Agenda runs through May 29. Mexico is working through 52 US demands, with 12 of its own going the other way. The technical agenda is specific: rules of origin for industrial goods, critical minerals, and what USTR's own language calls "limiting non-market inputs into North American supply chains."
That last phrase is the China reading. That's where the real conversation lives.
Both sides have said July 1 won't produce a clean conclusion. Canada still has no confirmed bilateral date. Janice Charette doesn't expect resolution by July.
So this week's round isn't about whether USMCA continues. The April data answered that for the private sector. The capital is voting with its feet.
From the operator side
For the VP Supply Chain running Tier 1 plants, the rules that change in July define cost structure for 16 years. Q3 Tier 2 sourcing decisions are the ones that get locked in.
For procurement, intermediate goods up 31.9% YoY means input cost across the border already adjusted upward, and the new rules will adjust it again. Contracts signed in 2024 are already mispriced.
For the CFO weighing capex on Mexican capacity, Q1 FDI record plus April surplus record is the signal that international capital made the call before July 1 arrived. The signal showed up in the data six weeks early.
DIESEL WATCH — Week of May 25, 2026
Region | 05/11/26 | 05/18/26 | 05/25/26 | vs 2yr | vs 1yr | vs wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. average | 5.639 | 5.596 | 5.523 | +1.765 | +2.036 | -0.073 |
East Coast (PADD1) | 5.465 | 5.420 | 5.394 | +1.509 | +1.839 | -0.026 |
New England (PADD1A) | 5.849 | 5.808 | 5.799 | +1.651 | +1.917 | -0.009 |
Central Atlantic (PADD1B) | 5.863 | 5.819 | 5.810 | +1.687 | +2.009 | -0.009 |
Lower Atlantic (PADD1C) | 5.278 | 5.231 | 5.201 | +1.431 | +1.773 | -0.030 |
Midwest (PADD2) | 5.815 | 5.749 | 5.623 | +1.990 | +2.195 | -0.126 |
Gulf Coast (PADD3) | 5.152 | 5.122 | 5.045 | +1.567 | +1.909 | -0.077 |
Rocky Mountain (PADD4) | 5.491 | 5.549 | 5.493 | +1.787 | +2.048 | -0.056 |
West Coast (PADD5) | 6.562 | 6.524 | 6.500 | +2.051 | +2.252 | -0.024 |
West Coast less California | 5.905 | 5.920 | 5.909 | +1.927 | +2.146 | -0.011 |
California | 7.321 | 7.222 | 7.182 | +2.197 | +2.374 | -0.040 |
Prices include all taxes. Source: EIA On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices.
First weekly decline in months across every PADD region, tracking WTI's drop to $88.53 on the Hormuz framework news. Midwest leads the drop at -12.6 cents, Gulf follows at -7.7. Diesel still sits $2.04/gal above year-ago nationally, a 58% YoY increase that 2024 contracts never priced in.
The cross-border spread is where it gets interesting. Gulf Coast at $5.045, cheapest in the country. California at $7.182. That's $2.14/gal between coasts, $642 of difference per 300-gallon fill-up. For the binational carrier refueling in Texas after Laredo crossing, geography is doing work no negotiation will undo.
WHAT ELSE HAPPENED
Hormuz framework deal in final stretch, oil falls 6% WTI dropped to $88.53 Wednesday on reports Iran will restore Hormuz traffic as part of a US framework deal. 60-day ceasefire extension, strait de-mined, Iran sells freely, US blockade lifted. Frozen assets and Iran's reluctance to guarantee unrestricted passage still on the table. 800+ vessels stranded in the Gulf. Even if the deal closes this weekend, bunker recovery takes months.
Tecomán blockades cut Manzanillo corridor Monday Armed confrontation in Caleras May 25 left multiple tractor-trailers burned across the Colima-Manzanillo highway, plus a freight train hitting a tractor on the tracks. Partial reopening at 21:58. A second tractor fire at km 25 Tuesday morning extended disruption into the new week. Pacific-Bajío corridor still interrupted at Mexico's busiest container port, right as export volumes are running at record pace.
Walmart guidance pulls stock out of trillion-dollar club Q1 revenue beat at $177.8 billion (+7.3%), e-commerce +26%, comparable sales +4.1%. Cautious guidance citing fuel pressure dropped the stock 7.6%. Walmart exited the trillion-dollar club, which says something when even the strongest US retailer can't fully absorb the fuel and tariff pass-through compounding since 2024.
Maersk discloses Middle East war is costing $500M per month in fuel First explicit dollar-level disclosure from a major carrier. Maersk Ocean EBIT swung to a $192M loss in Q1, with loaded volumes up 9.3% and utilization at 96%. Rates fell 14% while volumes grew. The carrier-shipper power balance hasn't shifted yet, regardless of what fuel is doing.
BLACKETT.