BLACKETT. June 8, 2026 · 020

Mexico's already done two rounds, Canada just had its second meeting with Greer after eight months of silence, and the calendar ran out a while ago.

July 1 stopped being the deadline Bloomberg ran a piece Friday saying the three USMCA partners are going to miss the July 1 renewal date. Nobody in the room is surprised. Mexico's been at the table since March, Round 1 closed two weeks ago, and Canada only got its second meeting with Greer last Tuesday after sitting on the sidelines since October. If all three parties don't confirm a 16-year extension, the agreement drops into annual reviews for ten years and then expires, which is a different posture than "renewed" even if the trade keeps flowing the same way the next morning.

Round 2 next week, Round 3 in July USTR has Round 2 set for June 16 and 17 in Washington. Agriculture is on the agenda, plus "a level playing field" and more work on rules of origin. Round 3 lands in Mexico City the week of July 20. That puts the heavy lifting on either side of the missed date, and the Fed meets the same week as Round 2, which makes the Washington calendar messier than usual.

Mexico hedging with Canada, in plain view Ebrard ran a trade mission to Toronto and Montreal in May and walked out with ten signed MoUs across life sciences, agri-food, education and creative industries, the largest mission Mexico's ever done with Canada. Bilateral trade is already north of $56 billion, and cumulative Canadian FDI in Mexico has hit $56.85 billion since 1999. Ebrard also wrote publicly that he wants Canada in the USMCA talks. None of this is happening in the dark.

NAM and the ag lobby getting loud The National Association of Manufacturers' May report pushed for a fast USMCA renewal and listed the changes its members want, cross-border investment rules, critical minerals, state-owned enterprise behavior. NAM doesn't usually go on record this close to a missed deadline, so when it does, somebody in the building decided the quiet approach wasn't working. Around the same time, about 160 ag and food organizations sent a joint letter to Greer, LeBlanc and Ebrard pointing out the bloc covers 500 million people, $30 trillion in GDP and $1.7 trillion in trade. The industry side is starting to coordinate.

Mexican pump diesel hit 30 pesos per liter in some regions in March, and tolls on the main corridors are up 3.5% to 4% so far this year.

Source: C.H. Robinson Cross-Border Freight Market Update, April 2026.

C.H. Robinson's read is that cross-border markets are tightening, strong Mexico trade running into rising carrier costs and regulatory pressure at the same time. The IEPS subsidy kept the price hike from hitting consumers, but it didn't reach the carriers, so the pressure shows up in operating cost first and rate request second. Shippers on northbound contract lanes should expect carriers to come back asking, and should ask for documented fuel and operating cost data before they sign anything.

The Canada play is a tell The Mexico-Canada mission isn't a replacement for the US relationship, but it's a signal Ebrard knows what room he's negotiating in. With 19 months running of negative total investment in Mexico, his team is widening the table before Round 2 starts, and the Canadian FDI number is exactly what you bring to the meeting when somebody asks if Mexico has options. The MoUs cover the sectors USTR already flagged in Round 1, life sciences and agri-food sitting right next to the medical devices, pharma and cosmetics language. Not by accident.

BLACKETT.