Trump says the war's almost done. The trade deal might be next.
Iran framework agreement landed Thursday, oil gave back another two percent overnight, and the President spent the week telling the world he might let USMCA expire.
The Iran deal is on paper
Trump told reporters in the Oval Office Thursday that the US has "just made a great settlement of the war with Iran, subject to finalisation of documents." Iranian state media followed with a leaked 14-point draft that includes a US commitment to lift oil sanctions and an Iranian commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, contingent on releasing half of Tehran's frozen funds and lifting the naval blockade. Trump said the deal could sign "as soon as Sunday." Iran's Fars news agency pushed back the same night, saying Tehran has not approved any draft text. The market is pricing the document over the denial.
Oil keeps coming off
WTI settled at $87.71 Thursday after losing $2.32 on the session. Brent finished below $89.50. Asian trading carried the move into Friday morning, Brent traded around $88.40 to $88.65 and WTI shaded down to $86.30 by the New York open. The S&P 500 closed up 1.8% Thursday on the same news, its biggest single-session gain since April, with Nasdaq up 2.5% and Dow up 1.9%. Kospi and Nikkei extended the rally overnight. Friday's session is more careful, indices traded mixed at the open as traders waited for the document Iran says doesn't exist.
Trump put USMCA back on the table
The President took questions in the Oval Office Wednesday about the July 1 USMCA deadline and went hard. "I'm not looking to renew it." "We don't need anything Canada has, we don't need anything Mexico has, but they need everything we have." "They have to treat us better." The comments came two days before Ebrard's team heads to Washington for the four-day Round 2 that runs Sunday through Thursday, and they didn't land by accident. USTR has been signaling for weeks that the agreement might end up as two bilateral tracks rather than one trilateral renewal, and Greer told Politico Thursday that Trump is actively considering dividing the deal in two.
Sheinbaum held her line
Mexico's response from the morning conference Thursday was that the agreement is going to hold. "I think USMCA stays. What the US wants is certain conditions for Mexico and certain conditions for Canada." She framed the integration argument the way the Sheinbaum government has framed it since March, employment in Mexico doesn't subtract from employment in the US, the two countries make different parts of the same vehicle and both lines grow together. Ebrard's team flies to Washington Sunday with that argument and a 52-item US demand list to work through, and the agenda runs four days because both sides agreed the work doesn't fit in two.
OIL & FREIGHT, Week of June 12, 2026
Crude finished the week lower on the Iran framework, but container rates kept climbing as shippers pull bookings forward ahead of the July tariff window.
Indicator | Reading | Move |
|---|---|---|
WTI crude (Jun 12 AM) | $86.30/bbl | -1.6% on the day, -8% on the week |
Brent crude (Jun 12 AM) | $88.80/bbl | -1.8% on the day, peaks held briefly above $96 Monday |
Drewry WCI (Jun 11) | $3,549/FEU | +3% week, sixth straight weekly gain |
Shanghai → NY | $5,870/FEU | +7% |
Shanghai → LA | $4,683/FEU | +3% |
TPEB blank sailings (next week) | 3 | down from 8, capacity tightening |
Sources: NYMEX, ICE, Drewry World Container Index, June 11-12, 2026.
Drewry's read is that rates keep climbing in the weeks ahead. Shippers are pulling bookings forward ahead of the potential US tariff changes USTR has signaled for July, the Christmas goods cycle started earlier than usual on the back of last year's late peak, and there's a cargo demand layer tied to the 2026 FIFA World Cup that started showing up in May bookings. The carriers know it. The surcharge stack from Hapag, Maersk and ONE is already in the market, and Drewry expects another move higher next week.
WHAT ELSE HAPPENED
The US is buying more capital goods than it can build
The Trade Balance for April came out Tuesday, deficit at $55.9 billion, exports up $8.3 billion on the month to $327.1 billion, imports up $7.6 billion to $383.0 billion. The line that tells the real story is capital goods imports, up $7.0 billion in one month with computers up $2.2 billion, semiconductors up $1.7 billion and telecom equipment up $1.6 billion. The AI buildout is in those numbers, and so is the China derisking that's been pulling Tier 2 suppliers into Mexico and Vietnam since 2024. For carriers running Asia-origin containers into North American DCs, the next two months are going to be tight, and shippers signing Q3 contracts should expect the rate sheet to keep moving on them.
BLACKETT.