BLACKETT. June 10, 2026 · INTELLIGENCE OF THE DAY · NORTH AMERICA

Headline inflation hit 4.2% YoY, the fastest pace since September 2023, while EIA's diesel survey logged its biggest one-week drop of the cycle.

CPI shows the energy pass-through is still working BLS released May CPI Wednesday morning. Headline ran 0.5% month-over-month, down from 0.6% in April, but the 12-month figure climbed to 4.2%, the highest reading since September 2023. Energy itself rose 3.9% in the month after 3.8% in April and the 10.9% spike in March, which is the cleanest read on whether the Hormuz disruption has finished flowing through to the consumer side. It hasn't. The print lands six days before Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as chair, and the market is now pricing the committee to drop its easing bias entirely. The conversation in Washington next Tuesday and Wednesday isn't about when rates come down, it's about whether they go up.

Diesel pump prices finally retreated EIA's weekly survey for the week ending June 8 showed US on-highway diesel averaging $5.210 per gallon, down 14 cents from $5.350 the prior week. Midwest carriers got the biggest break, with PADD 2 down 21 cents to $5.182. Gulf Coast slid 11.4 cents to $4.786, the first sub-$5 reading at PADD 3 since the Iran conflict started. The national price is still $1.739 above a year ago, but the weekly direction matters because it's the first sign that wholesale gasoline and diesel inventories are catching up to refinery throughput. Carriers running northbound contract lanes into Mexico will see this in fuel surcharge calculations through July.

Round 2 lands with the Fed meeting USTR has Round 2 set for Washington on June 16 and 17, the same two days as Warsh's first FOMC. Mexico is working through 52 US demands and has tabled 12 of its own, which is the operating context for everything Ebrard's team brings to the table. Round 3 follows in Mexico City the week of July 20, after the missed July 1 deadline. Trade negotiators on both sides have privately conceded the agreement isn't getting renewed on schedule, but the calendar still matters because the technical work on rules of origin and agriculture has to land somewhere before the November midterms.

Mexico's China tariff stack is the alignment USTR has been asking for The other piece worth reading underneath Round 2 prep is the 1,400 product categories Mexico already taxes from non-FTA countries, which captures Chinese-origin goods entering through any Mexican port. That number was the Sheinbaum government's opening offer to USTR before Round 1 even started, and it's the reason the conversation in Washington keeps coming back to North American supply chain security rather than bilateral grievances. Mexico's already moved on China. Washington's asking for more.

National average dropped 14 cents in a week, with Midwest taking the largest cut and Gulf Coast breaking below $5 for the first time since the Iran conflict began.

Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, June 9, 2026. All prices include taxes.

The relief is consistent across districts. Midwest carriers benefit most given their fuel share of operating cost, and Gulf Coast moving below $5 will start to show up in Houston-Laredo lane rates within two weeks. The national year-over-year remains painful at +$1.739, which is the line shippers should hold against carriers asking for rate increases this quarter.

Mexico hedged with Canada in front of everyone Ebrard's May trade mission to Toronto and Montreal closed with ten signed MoUs across life sciences, agri-food, education and creative industries, the biggest mission Mexico has run with Canada to date. Bilateral commerce is already north of $56 billion and cumulative Canadian FDI in Mexico sits at $56.85 billion since 1999, which gives the Mexico-Canada relationship enough scaffolding to matter at Round 2. Ebrard publicly called for Canada to be included in USMCA talks the same week. The geometry isn't accidental, Mexico wants the deal trilateral and has been building the visible alternatives in case Washington pushes too hard.

Drewry WCI confirmed Transpacific did the lifting Drewry's June 4 release showed the World Container Index up 23% to $3,433 per FEU, the fifth straight weekly gain. Transpacific rates rose 25%, Asia-Europe and Med routes 22%, Transatlantic just 5%. Shanghai-LA climbed 31% to $4,565 per FEU and Shanghai-NY 20% to $5,505. The next release lands tomorrow, and the question for shippers reading Q3 budgets is whether the early peak season Drewry called out two weeks ago is going to extend the rate curve into July and August, or whether the diesel break and easing tensions pull the spot back faster than carriers want.

BLACKETT.